The decline trend of the performance of the hottes

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In the fourth quarter, the performance decline of architectural decoration companies showed signs of stopping

the performance decline of architectural decoration companies in the fourth quarter showed signs of stopping

November 1, 2012

[China paint information] although the economy continued to decline, the stock market fell again and again, and some friends even said that "call the police if you call the bull market again". However, in the three quarterly reports that listed companies are not optimistic, some positive signals have begun to appear

looking back on the continuous decline since March this year, the root cause lies in the delayed future of the economic bottom and the continuous decline of profit growth. However, shenjianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities Asia, said that recent data showed that short-term macro indicators performed better than expected, indicating that the economy did show signs of stabilizing. However, the data rebound of one month should not be over interpreted, and it still needs continuous observation. The third quarterly report also shows that the de stocking of listed companies is continuing, and the inventory value of non-financial enterprises has increased by about 20% year-on-year. Compared with the semi annual report and the first quarterly report, the growth rate has slowed down quarter by quarter

in the face of signs of improvement in short-term economic data, most securities companies are cautious and optimistic about the opportunities after the third quarter report. Their differences mainly lie in the sustainability and strength of the recovery. Among them, China Merchants Securities, which is relatively aggressive, believes that the poor performance of the third quarter report will release the market risk, the corporate profits are expected to stop falling and stabilize between 11V and 32V, and the economic growth is expected to build an "L" bottom. However, Shenyin Wanguo tanfei reminded investors that the performance of Listed Companies in the fourth quarter will still be the most important indicator to pay attention to. At present, the share price of listed companies is depressed, and the decline in performance growth is a more important reason. With the acceleration of de stocking of enterprises, the risks of accounts receivable and bad debts also deserve more attention. Tan Fei suggested that investors screen potential stocks in the fourth quarter report from the blue chip stocks in the third quarter report

guess 1

concept stocks may continue to be popular

due to the poor market in the third quarter, the current investor sentiment is still pessimistic and cautious. Tan Fei of Shenyin Wanguo predicts that it may be difficult for blue chip heavyweights to have an overall trend market in the fourth quarter, which undoubtedly provides an opportunity to "continue to be popular" for short-term speculation in the concept sector

Tan Fei said that in the fourth quarter, small industries supported by national policies may dance with the favorable policies from time to time, especially the concept sectors such as environmental protection, touch screen, safety protection equipment, geothermal energy and shale gas. As the industry itself is in a period of rapid development, its performance may often be better than the overall average level of the market, so it is expected to continue to receive financial attention

"in the concept sector, in fact, there are many stocks with good performance. Such stocks are expected to obtain band opportunities in the fourth quarter." Tanfei said

conjecture 2

early cycle stocks are in the dawn in the short term

if the signals of economic recovery were still accumulating in the fourth quarter, there is no reason not to pay attention to the early cycle industries in the A-share market (i.e. industries that are sensitive in a round of economic cycles). The current valuation of this industry is relatively low and the inventory is relatively low. For example, the incentive policy for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements is relatively flexible, which may be interesting

according to Shenwan's industry classification, in the three quarterly reports, the performance decline of some early cycle industries has shown signs of stabilization, including real estate, construction ± 10% 21, effective experimental width of experimental machine: 395mm22, power: 400w/750kw23, host weight: about 250kg24, software and user interface: Software and interactive man-machine dialogue operating interface under Windows operating environment 25, experimental process and measurement, display The control is automatically completed by the digital display system. 26. After the sample is damaged, the performance decline of early cycle industries such as materials and machinery is reduced compared with the interim report. For example, the performance of the third quarter report of the real estate sector rebounded by 2.38% year-on-year, which is significantly better than the 1.94% year-on-year decline in the interim report. In addition, the year-on-year decline in the performance of the building materials and building decoration sectors showed signs of stopping. Among them, the performance of the building decoration sector also rebounded from the year-on-year decline of 6.87% in the interim report to the rise of 1.79% in the third quarter report

however, laiyilei of Zheshang securities warned that investors should pay attention to whether the recent economic data continues to pick up if they are to lay out early cycle industries. "Moreover, if they want to lay out such stocks in advance, they are mostly 'left-hand trading' (that is, trading when the decline has not been significantly reversed). Therefore, position control is very important and it is not suitable to buy heavily."

conjecture 3

non cyclical leader HENGQIANG

although some early cyclical industries have shown signs of improving performance, more securities companies believe that for ordinary small and medium-sized investors, non cyclical industry stocks with strong strategic defense should be preferred as the main configuration

Xiangcai Securities said that the current medium - and long-term difficulties of China's economy are mainly the rise in non-performing assets of banks caused by overcapacity and economic downturn. "Under such a background, the non cycle of large consumption can become an important choice."

looking at the third quarterly report, we can also find that the main reason why securities companies favor non cyclical industry stocks is that their performance is relatively stable. In the third quarterly report of this year, non cyclical industry stocks such as food and beverage, public utilities, film and television animation, catering and tourism, and media all have relatively good performance. Among them, the performance of the food and beverage sector in the first three quarters of this year increased by 48.85% year-on-year, compared with 38.11% in the interim report, continuing to show a good growth trend

guess 4

underestimate the revaluation opportunities of the sector

in addition to the non cyclical industries with stable performance, under the weak market situation, underestimate the sector has also become an important way for funds to avoid risks. Many analysts said that due to the continuous downturn in the market, most of the computer equipment, communication and other sectors with not bad performance are at the level of undervaluation. If the market recovers in the future, such sectors are expected to usher in a revaluation opportunity

for example, the performance of the computer equipment sector in the first three quarters of this year increased by 19.39% year-on-year, far better than the 13.92% growth level in the interim report. Hou bukui of aerospace Securities said that in the medium and long term, based on the needs of China's economic restructuring, the computer industry, as the core content of informatization, will still be in the growth channel that significantly exceeds the economic growth

in addition, the communication sector, which is also an emerging strategic industry, is also at the performance inflection point. Zhangliangyong of China Merchants Securities believes that with the start of centralized procurement by domestic operators, the communication sector is expected to be significantly stronger than the market in the fourth quarter. "It is recommended that investors pay attention to the companies in this sector whose annual performance is determined but whose valuation is low."

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